April 15, 2011
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
We offer our heartfelt condolences to everyone affected by the Tohoku Pacific Earthquake, and our prayers for the speediest possible recovery.
On March 15, 2011, Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI) launched an earthquake recovery assistance project team under the direct authority of its president, Tadashi Shimamoto. As a recommendation on measures to deal with the electricity supply-demand situation in the service area of Tokyo Electric Power Co., the team put together "Sixth Recommendation: Promotion of Power-Saving Measures in Homes." The report's main points are as follows.
In order to consider measures to "encourage efforts to reduce power consumption" (power-saving promotion) necessary to more effectively implement power-saving measures in the electricity service area of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (as well as of Tohoku Electric Power Co.), NRI carried out "a questionnaire survey on power saving in homes and rolling blackouts" in early April 2011 for the purpose of capturing consumers' awareness and actual conditions of power-saving efforts (see Table 1 for details of the survey).
The questionnaire survey showed the following results.
On the basis of several assumptions about major power-saving measures practicable in homes, the total expected power-saving amount is estimated at 696W per household (Table 2). On the other hand, the assumed power-saving amount per household, estimated on the basis of the rate of implementation of power-saving measures after the earthquake, came to 371W (Tables 3 and 4). This means that the assumed power-saving amount on an actual performance basis is no more than about half the expected power-saving amount. The survey also shows that among power-saving measures that can be implemented in homes without extra cost, the implementation rate for "reduction in the number of air conditioners in use" is low despite its large expected power-saving amount, indicating that a large additional power-saving effect can be expected from this particular measure by carrying out effective power-saving promotion efforts (Table 5).
Meanwhile, power-saving efforts by (1) raising the preset temperature of air conditioners and (2) reducing the number of air conditioners in use are likely to save the consumption of electricity by (1) 200,000kW and (2) 810,000kW, respectively, in the service area of Tokyo Electric Power Co. as a whole (Table 6).
In order to implement power-saving measures more effectively in homes in this summer, we believe that it is important to carry out "power-saving promotion" efforts that are geared particularly toward power-saving steps with larger effects instead of just urging consumers to "save power."
The survey on consumers on the awareness of the need for power-saving efforts within and outside areas covered by the rolling blackouts carried out in March 2011 found that consumers living within areas subjected to the rolling blackouts are more eager to take power-saving steps this summer, as seen in "the number of air conditioners they intend not to use" (Table 7). This suggests that it is necessary to consider "power-saving promotion" efforts that take into account the apparent difference in the awareness of the need for power-saving efforts between consumers who experienced the rolling blackouts and those who did not.
The government is expected to launch publicity activities to promote power-saving efforts by households and individuals going forward based on a policy package to be announced by the Electricity Supply-Demand Emergency Response Headquarters by the end of April. In order to tap into potential power-saving amounts of households and individuals to the maximum extent possible, it is necessary to carry out meticulous "power-saving promotion" activities by paying full heed to the differences in the characteristics of consumers depending on whether or not they experienced the rolling blackouts and in their awareness of the need for power-saving efforts.
NRI will continue to present its recommendations on power supply-demand countermeasures as well as measures for the earthquake disaster restoration.
For further details on this recommendation, see the following website (Japanese only):
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■Table 1 Outline of the Questionnaire Survey
■Table 2 Expected Power-Saving Amount per Household When Major Power-Saving Measures Are Taken
Source: Prepared by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. based on various documents and materials.
■Table 3 Implementation Rate of Major Power-Saving Measures
■Table 4 Expected Power-Saving Amount and Actual Performance-Based Assumed Power-Saving Amount
■Table 5 Expected Power-Saving Amount and Implementation Rate of Major Power-Saving Measures
■Table 6 Assumed Power-Saving Amount Related to Air Conditioners
■Table 7 Intentions to Take Power-Saving Steps Regarding Air Conditioners