Promoting Emergency Measures Toward Recovery from the Earthquake
- Fourth Recommendation: The Impact of the Earthquake Disaster on Employment and the Vision for Job Security/Creation Going Forward -

We offer our heartfelt condolences to everyone affected by the Tohoku Pacific Earthquake, and our prayers for the speediest possible recovery.

On March 15, 2011, Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. launched an earthquake recovery assistance project team under the direct authority of its president, Tadashi Shimamoto. As a recommendation toward the advancement of the Tohoku Region and industrial revival, the team put together "Fourth Recommendation: The Impact of the Earthquake Disaster on Employment and the Vision for Job Security/Creation Going Forward." The report's main points are as follows.

■Recommendation

Efforts toward "job security/creation" are an extremely important challenge in the restoration of areas devastated by the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Based on the 2005 Census and the 2006 Establishment and Enterprise Census, the number of employees in afflicted areas at the time of the earthquake is estimated at 773,000 (Table 1). An estimate based on the industrial structure of these areas also shows that employees who can maintain their previous jobs one year after the earthquake are no more than 714,000, while employees forced to change jobs within the afflicted areas number 16,000 and those who lose jobs and have to move out of the afflicted areas number as many as 44,000. By six years after the earthquake, the number of employees who can maintain their previous jobs is estimated at 678,000, while employees forced to change jobs within the afflicted areas are likely to total 14,000 and those who lose jobs and have to move out of the afflicted areas are estimated to rise to 82,000 (Table 2).

These estimates can be construed to reflect that the industrial structural change, which should occur over a long period of time under normal conditions, has happened in a fraction of a second due to the earthquake. This can be considered as an opportunity to achieve a transformation of the regional industrial structure, which would normally require strenuous efforts over a long period of time, in a short span of time by making proficient use of government support for the earthquake disaster reconstruction instead of just "restoring" the previous patterns of industry and employment.

NRI believes that it is important to address the "job security/creation" by combining various forms of efforts based on the characteristics of each industry. This recommendation divides "job" opportunities into the following six categories on the basis of industry characteristics and sorts out the approaches in considering restoration support measures in each category:

1. "Jobs maintainable" due to the necessity of supporting the livelihood of local residents albeit with a measure of business consolidation;
2. Jobs in industries that attain an "autonomous recovery" by obtaining the support of consumers in the global supply chain;
3. Jobs secured and created through the "selective recovery" led by companies with management practices that allow them to recover temporarily lost commercial rights and markets;
4. Jobs created by the "recovery through drastic streamlining of business operations" aimed at strengthening management practices through consolidation of management resources to rebuild business bases;
5. Jobs through the "creation of new industry" as an innovation
   (See "Second Recommendation: the Basic Policy of Tohoku Region and Industrial Revitalization Plan"); and
6. Jobs that have to be transferred out of the afflicted areas.

Table 1 Estimated Numbers of Employees One Year and Six Years after the Earthquake

Enlarged Illustration

Table 2 Estimated Numbers of People Who Can Retain Current Jobs and People Who Change Jobs or Lose Jobs

Enlarged Illustration