Japan’s Major IT Markets: Scale and Trends through 2013 (2)
— “Mobile” Drives Online Settlement Market, which will Double to ¥450 Billion in 5 Years —
— “Mobile” Drives Online Settlement Market, which will Double to ¥450 Billion in 5 Years —
December 17, 2008
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, Chairman and President, CEO & COO) has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts for the period through fiscal 2013 for five major markets of information technology principally in Japan. In this second phase following the forecasts for broadband and broadcasting media markets released on December 15, 2008, NRI announces forecast results for the seven fields of the Internet-based business market, four fields of the mobile market, and seven fields of the hardware market.
Market Scale Forecasts
(See the definitions for each market provided at the end of this news release.)
Internet-based business to expand to ¥16 trillion in fiscal 2013
Because Internet-based business targeting mobile phones as well as PCs is growing, the overall Internet-based business market will steadily expand. The entire Internet-based business market is projected to nearly double from about ¥9,100 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥16 trillion in fiscal 2013.
The BtoC EC (business-to-consumer electronic commerce) field is expected to account for the largest portion of total sales in this market, and will exceed ¥11 trillion in fiscal 2013. “Mobile EC” (EC targeting mobile phones) will drive the market in the next five years, and the ratio of mobile EC in the entire BtoC EC will increase from 20 percent in fiscal 2008 to around 25 percent in fiscal 2013, amounting to about ¥2,500 billion.
While the pace at which the Internet advertising field grows might slow down, it will nevertheless expand from about ¥580 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥840 billion in fiscal 2013, accounting for slightly more than 12 percent of the total advertising expenditure in Japan. Of this amount, the size of advertising targeting mobile phones will equal about ¥200 billion in fiscal 2013, which will account for more than 20 percent of the entire Internet advertising field.
The online game field has grown with the spread of home-use game machines enabling online usage through broadband lines. However, because such growth in the spread of game machines is expected to no longer continue, this field will see only limited growth in the future, reaching around ¥200 billion in fiscal 2013.
While its rate of growth is only around 7 percent, the Internet auction field is projected to reach about ¥1,500 billion in fiscal 2013 as supported by an increase in BtoC auctions, improved reliability of Internet auctions for such reasons as reducing fraud and expanded participation through the use of mobile phones and other types of mobile terminals.
With the expansion of the EC market, the field of online billing/payments is projected to expand from about ¥220 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥460 billion in fiscal 2013. Of this amount, EC payments using mobile phones and other types of mobile terminals are expected to rapidly increase from about ¥40 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥100 billion in fiscal 2013.
The information security field has attained major growth as accelerated by moves to comply with the Personal Information Protection Law that was put into force in 2004. Since then, this field has continued to grow with the efforts of companies to prevent instances of information leakage that have repeatedly occurred and to strengthen internal control. The size of this field is projected to reach about ¥550 billion in fiscal 2013.
Corporate information systems incorporating use of mobile phones and content targeting mobile phones are increasing
With the number of subscribers to mobile phones exceeding 100 million, the market is approaching maturity in terms of the number of users. However, peripheral fields such as mobile solutions and mobile content are expected to continue to grow. The mobile phone field in which mobile phone carriers have operated terminals, networks and platforms (billing/authentication, operation of portal sites, etc.) on an integrated basis is moving toward “open” networks and platforms where the functions offered by one company can be used by other companies. As such, major changes are occurring in the business structure and in the power balance of each player.
In the mobile carrier field, the number of contracted lines of mobile phones is projected to increase from about 107 million in fiscal 2008 to 115 million in fiscal 2013. This increase is expected to be brought about by an increase in the percentage of people in the lower-aged (youth and young-adult) segment and the senior segment who have mobile phones, the increase in the number of individuals who have multiple mobile phones and the increase in the number of contracts with companies.
Even if the number of contracted lines increases, the revenue of the mobile phone carriers will shrink if the declining trend of ARPU (average revenue per user) continues. Under a scenario in which ARPU is assumed to decline at an annual rate of 4 percent through fiscal 2009 and at an annual rate of 3 percent thereafter, the revenue in fiscal 2013 is projected to reduce to around 90 percent of that in fiscal 2008.
In contrast, the wireless broadband field is expected to expand rapidly, with its size amounting to around ¥380 billion in fiscal 2013 because of the launch of next-generation broadband wireless services (WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access), next-generation PHS) in fiscal 2009.
The mobile content field is projected to expand from about ¥370 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥ 400 billion in fiscal 2013. While electronic books and games will drive the expansion of the “entertainment” segment, from a long-term perspective, this field is expected to shrink because of a declining trend of the segment of information services.
We forecast that the size of the mobile solution field will amount to ¥770 billion in fiscal 2013, which is more than double that in fiscal 2008 (about ¥300 billion). This substantial growth is assumed to stem from the fact that user companies are becoming less reluctant to introduce mobile solutions for reasons such as the emergence of advanced services offered by mobile communications carriers like flat-rate HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, which is the upgraded version of W-CDMA (3G mobile phone system) and uses high-speed packet transmission technology), the appearance of advanced terminals (Smartphone and MID (Mobile Internet Device)) and the need to upgrade corporate information systems.
Expansion of flat-screen TV sales will be seen in countries other than Japan, the US and Western Europe, such as in China
The sales of flat-screen TVs in the world market will increase from about 114 million units (estimate) in 2008 to about 199 million units in fiscal 2013. Because Japan moved ahead of other countries in distributing flat-screen TVs, the Japanese market will see no particular growth in demand in the future until the period when demand for replacement arises. The markets in the US and Western Europe will continue to grow as these countries have lagged behind Japan in introducing flat-screen TVs. The most promising markets in the future are those in China and other Asian countries where demand is still high for cathode-ray TVs.
The demand for mobile handsets is expected to sharply drop with the introduction of a new pricing plan (the prices of handsets are increased) in Japan. In contrast, the shipments in the world market are projected to increase from about 1.03 billion units (estimate) in fiscal 2008 to more than 1.2 billion units in fiscal 2013 due to steady growth in demand in developing countries.
The digital camera field is approaching maturity in Japan and North America. In the future, Europe, Asia and South America are expected to drive the world market. In fiscal 2013, the world’s annual shipments are projected to reach about 178 million units.
We forecast that shipments of digital video recorders will increase to about 3.4 million units in Japan and about 29 million worldwide in fiscal 2013 as supported by factors such as future product price reductions, larger hard disk capacity, the cessation of analog broadcasting, and a growing demand for replacement with Blu-ray Disc products.
With a downturn in the sales of automobiles and automobiles in which information terminals are mounted nearing saturation, the major growth that was attained in the past will no longer be expected in the field of car-mounted information terminals such as car navigation systems. In fiscal 2013, the size of the Japanese market is projected to be about 5.4 million units.
The sales of robots in Japan (not including robots used in manufacturing plants and for entertainment) are expected to expand from about ¥4 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥14 billion in fiscal 2013. It is highly likely that this field will start to expand with robots that are developed and put into practical use based on subsidies, e.g., welfare and nursing care service robots to help people who need care and support.
This is the eighth edition of NRI’s IT market forecasts since 2000. NRI plans to publish the details of market analyses and forecasts as a book entitled Korekara joho tsushin shijo de nani ga okorunoka – IT shijo nabigeta 2009 (What will occur in the information and communications market in the future – IT market navigator 2009) on December 18, 2008, by Toyo Keizai Inc.
Market Scale Forecasts
(See the definitions for each market provided at the end of this news release.)
| (Unit: ¥ Billion) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| *1: | The forecasts for Internet advertising, mobile content, flat-screen TVs and digital video recorders are based on calendar years, rather than on fiscal years. |
| *2: | The figures in the upper row represent the assumption that the average revenue per user (ARPU) of each carrier will continue to decline at an annual rate of 4 percent through fiscal 2009 and at an annual rate of 3 percent thereafter; the figures in the lower row represent the assumption that the ARPU of each carrier will continue to decline at an annual rate of 5 percent in and after fiscal 2008. |
| *3: | CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) refers to the average annual growth rate during the period between fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2013. |
Internet-based business to expand to ¥16 trillion in fiscal 2013
Because Internet-based business targeting mobile phones as well as PCs is growing, the overall Internet-based business market will steadily expand. The entire Internet-based business market is projected to nearly double from about ¥9,100 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥16 trillion in fiscal 2013.
The BtoC EC (business-to-consumer electronic commerce) field is expected to account for the largest portion of total sales in this market, and will exceed ¥11 trillion in fiscal 2013. “Mobile EC” (EC targeting mobile phones) will drive the market in the next five years, and the ratio of mobile EC in the entire BtoC EC will increase from 20 percent in fiscal 2008 to around 25 percent in fiscal 2013, amounting to about ¥2,500 billion.
While the pace at which the Internet advertising field grows might slow down, it will nevertheless expand from about ¥580 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥840 billion in fiscal 2013, accounting for slightly more than 12 percent of the total advertising expenditure in Japan. Of this amount, the size of advertising targeting mobile phones will equal about ¥200 billion in fiscal 2013, which will account for more than 20 percent of the entire Internet advertising field.
The online game field has grown with the spread of home-use game machines enabling online usage through broadband lines. However, because such growth in the spread of game machines is expected to no longer continue, this field will see only limited growth in the future, reaching around ¥200 billion in fiscal 2013.
While its rate of growth is only around 7 percent, the Internet auction field is projected to reach about ¥1,500 billion in fiscal 2013 as supported by an increase in BtoC auctions, improved reliability of Internet auctions for such reasons as reducing fraud and expanded participation through the use of mobile phones and other types of mobile terminals.
With the expansion of the EC market, the field of online billing/payments is projected to expand from about ¥220 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥460 billion in fiscal 2013. Of this amount, EC payments using mobile phones and other types of mobile terminals are expected to rapidly increase from about ¥40 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥100 billion in fiscal 2013.
| Forecasts for Online Billing/Payments |
 |
The information security field has attained major growth as accelerated by moves to comply with the Personal Information Protection Law that was put into force in 2004. Since then, this field has continued to grow with the efforts of companies to prevent instances of information leakage that have repeatedly occurred and to strengthen internal control. The size of this field is projected to reach about ¥550 billion in fiscal 2013.
Corporate information systems incorporating use of mobile phones and content targeting mobile phones are increasing
With the number of subscribers to mobile phones exceeding 100 million, the market is approaching maturity in terms of the number of users. However, peripheral fields such as mobile solutions and mobile content are expected to continue to grow. The mobile phone field in which mobile phone carriers have operated terminals, networks and platforms (billing/authentication, operation of portal sites, etc.) on an integrated basis is moving toward “open” networks and platforms where the functions offered by one company can be used by other companies. As such, major changes are occurring in the business structure and in the power balance of each player.
In the mobile carrier field, the number of contracted lines of mobile phones is projected to increase from about 107 million in fiscal 2008 to 115 million in fiscal 2013. This increase is expected to be brought about by an increase in the percentage of people in the lower-aged (youth and young-adult) segment and the senior segment who have mobile phones, the increase in the number of individuals who have multiple mobile phones and the increase in the number of contracts with companies.
Even if the number of contracted lines increases, the revenue of the mobile phone carriers will shrink if the declining trend of ARPU (average revenue per user) continues. Under a scenario in which ARPU is assumed to decline at an annual rate of 4 percent through fiscal 2009 and at an annual rate of 3 percent thereafter, the revenue in fiscal 2013 is projected to reduce to around 90 percent of that in fiscal 2008.
In contrast, the wireless broadband field is expected to expand rapidly, with its size amounting to around ¥380 billion in fiscal 2013 because of the launch of next-generation broadband wireless services (WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access), next-generation PHS) in fiscal 2009.
The mobile content field is projected to expand from about ¥370 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥ 400 billion in fiscal 2013. While electronic books and games will drive the expansion of the “entertainment” segment, from a long-term perspective, this field is expected to shrink because of a declining trend of the segment of information services.
We forecast that the size of the mobile solution field will amount to ¥770 billion in fiscal 2013, which is more than double that in fiscal 2008 (about ¥300 billion). This substantial growth is assumed to stem from the fact that user companies are becoming less reluctant to introduce mobile solutions for reasons such as the emergence of advanced services offered by mobile communications carriers like flat-rate HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access, which is the upgraded version of W-CDMA (3G mobile phone system) and uses high-speed packet transmission technology), the appearance of advanced terminals (Smartphone and MID (Mobile Internet Device)) and the need to upgrade corporate information systems.
Expansion of flat-screen TV sales will be seen in countries other than Japan, the US and Western Europe, such as in China
The sales of flat-screen TVs in the world market will increase from about 114 million units (estimate) in 2008 to about 199 million units in fiscal 2013. Because Japan moved ahead of other countries in distributing flat-screen TVs, the Japanese market will see no particular growth in demand in the future until the period when demand for replacement arises. The markets in the US and Western Europe will continue to grow as these countries have lagged behind Japan in introducing flat-screen TVs. The most promising markets in the future are those in China and other Asian countries where demand is still high for cathode-ray TVs.
The demand for mobile handsets is expected to sharply drop with the introduction of a new pricing plan (the prices of handsets are increased) in Japan. In contrast, the shipments in the world market are projected to increase from about 1.03 billion units (estimate) in fiscal 2008 to more than 1.2 billion units in fiscal 2013 due to steady growth in demand in developing countries.
The digital camera field is approaching maturity in Japan and North America. In the future, Europe, Asia and South America are expected to drive the world market. In fiscal 2013, the world’s annual shipments are projected to reach about 178 million units.
We forecast that shipments of digital video recorders will increase to about 3.4 million units in Japan and about 29 million worldwide in fiscal 2013 as supported by factors such as future product price reductions, larger hard disk capacity, the cessation of analog broadcasting, and a growing demand for replacement with Blu-ray Disc products.
With a downturn in the sales of automobiles and automobiles in which information terminals are mounted nearing saturation, the major growth that was attained in the past will no longer be expected in the field of car-mounted information terminals such as car navigation systems. In fiscal 2013, the size of the Japanese market is projected to be about 5.4 million units.
The sales of robots in Japan (not including robots used in manufacturing plants and for entertainment) are expected to expand from about ¥4 billion in fiscal 2008 to about ¥14 billion in fiscal 2013. It is highly likely that this field will start to expand with robots that are developed and put into practical use based on subsidies, e.g., welfare and nursing care service robots to help people who need care and support.
This is the eighth edition of NRI’s IT market forecasts since 2000. NRI plans to publish the details of market analyses and forecasts as a book entitled Korekara joho tsushin shijo de nani ga okorunoka – IT shijo nabigeta 2009 (What will occur in the information and communications market in the future – IT market navigator 2009) on December 18, 2008, by Toyo Keizai Inc.
[For inquiries, please contact:]
Ryoko Baba / Yukako Seto
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Tel: +81-3-6270-8100
E-mail:
Ryoko Baba / Yukako Seto
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Tel: +81-3-6270-8100
E-mail:
| Market/Field Definitions | |||||||||||||||
| Internet-based Business Market | |||||||||||||||
|
| Mobile Market | |||||||||||||||||
|
| Hardware Market | |||||||||||||||
|
To List of Press Releases
Copyright(c) 2008 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.