Perspectives on the Scale and Trends of the IT Marke
in Japan through 2011(1)
— Flat-Screen TV, Mobile Handset and DVR Markets to Continue Growing;
Terrestrial Digital Broadcasting Market to Exceed ¥2 Trillion —
December 19, 2006
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo, Japan; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO) has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts for the period through 2011 for five major fields of information technology in Japan. In this first phase, NRI announces market scale forecasts for seven hardware markets and three broadcasting markets. NRI will publish forecasts for the Internet-based business, mobile phone and broadband markets in an upcoming release.
||Flat-screen TV (1,000 units) *1, 2
|Mobile handset (million units) *1
|Car-mounted information terminal (1,000 units)
|Digital camera (1,000 units) *1
|Game machine (1,000 units)
|Digital video recorder (1,000 units) *1, 2
|Robot (billion yen)
||Terrestrial digital broadcasting (billion yen)
|Satellite broadcasting (billion yen)
BS digital broadcasting
CS digital broadcasting
|Cable TV (billion yen)
||Forecasts for flat-screen TVs, mobile handsets, digital cameras and digital video recorders represent shipments to the world market.
||Forecasts for flat-screen TVs and digital video recorders are based on calendar years, rather than fiscal years.
Shipments of flat-screen TVs will amount to 130 million units, with mobile handsets reaching 1.2 billion units
Most hardware markets, such as mobile handsets that have grown explosively since the latter half of the 1990s, and flat-screen TVs, digital cameras and digital video recorders(DVR), which are referred to as the "new three sacred treasures," will continue to grow through 2011 in terms of the number of units shipped. However, due to continued reductions of product prices, we consider that these markets have reached maturity on a monetary basis.
While shipments of flat-screen TVs will continue to grow through 2010, they are expected to level off after reaching 130 million units in 2011. On a monetary basis, the market scale will shift into a decline after reaching a peak around 2010.
The mobile handset market is expected to continue growing with BRICs users serving as a driving force, and is projected to expand to more than 1.2 billion units in fiscal 2011.
Shipments of digital cameras will cease to grow after reaching a peak of 91.40 million units around 2008. On a monetary basis, this market may shift into a decline starting in 2007 if product prices drop at a faster pace.
NRI believes that to deal with these environmental changes such as slowdown of sales and/or declining trends, Japan's comprehensive electric and electronics manufacturers face a need to strengthen their global brand management and operations in addition to the selection and concentration of business operations.
Digital broadcasting markets will steadily expand in both terrestrial and BS systems
Spurred on by an increasing demand for replacing conventional TVs with flat-screen TVs, broadcasting markets are expected to attain stable growth in both terrestrial and BS digital broadcasting services. By the end of fiscal 2011, 39.97 million households will view terrestrial digital broadcasts, while 28.13 million households will view BS digital broadcasts. On a monetary basis, the two markets will amount to 2,149 billion yen and 597.2 billion yen, respectively.
As a means of covering areas outside the reach of digital broadcast waves, IP broadcasting service is planned to be offered for the re-transmission of terrestrial waves. The market of pay-per-view multi-channel broadcasting that is approaching maturity will see intense competition among terrestrial cable TV operators, IP broadcasters and satellite broadcasters, which will further accelerate industrial restructuring through management integration and alliances.
This is the sixth version of NRI's IT market forecasts, following those made in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. NRI plans to publish the details of the forecasts outlined above as a book entitled Korekara joho tsushin shijo de nani ga okorunoka— IT shijo nabigeta 2007 (What will occur in the information and communications market— IT market navigator 2007) on December 21, 2006 by Toyo Keizai Inc.
[For general inquiries, please contact the following:]
Yukako Seto / Ai Ohara
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
||This market refers to three systems: liquid crystal TVs, plasma TVs and micro-display (MD) type rear-projection TVs (CRT rear-projection TVs are not included).
||This market refers to that of mobile handsets manufactured and shipped worldwide by Japanese manufacturers. Japan's PHS, the US's iDEN and WLAN terminals are not included.
|Car-mounted information terminals
||The market consists of the total amount of shipments of car navigation system terminals and associated modules in Japan.
Dedicated terminals not associated with a navigation system, such as a car-mounted theft prevention device and a car-mounted ETC device, are not included.
||This market is defined as that for digital cameras for the principle purpose of taking still pictures. Included are digital cameras with associated functions to replay music and/or take moving pictures, and single-lens reflex digital cameras. However, equipment used for the principal purpose other than taking still pictures and that has built-in digital camera functions, such as a mobile phone with a built-in digital camera, is not included. Digital video cameras used for the principal purpose of taking moving pictures and hybrid cameras with functions to take both still and moving pictures, i.e., multi-camera systems, are also not included.
||This market covers third and subsequent generation stationary game machines for household use. Game software and arcade game machines are not included. Third-generation stationary game machines include PlayStation 2 (PS2) of Sony Computer Entertainment (SCE), Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's GameCube.
Fourth-generation stationary game machines include Microsoft's Xbox 360, SCE's PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Nintendo's Wii.
|Digital video recorders
||Trends in demand for TV video recording devices that use digital storage media such as DVDs and hard disks are indicated. This market covers only stationary devices, and does not include portable devices.
||A robot is defined as an independent device equipped with control and driving systems to autonomously conduct processing in response to input from sensors. The size of the robot market consists of sales of these devices (hardware) and does not cover those of services associated with robots. Robots covered in this market do not include robots for manufacturing operations (conventional manufacturing operations; factory automation), robots for next-generation manufacturing operations (cell production systems) and military robots. Because power assist suits (or robot suits) that employ robot technology are not independent equipment, and opinions are divided on whether to include such suits in this category, these devices are not included in this market.
|Terrestrial digital broadcasting
||The market consists of advertising revenues of broadcasters and NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) reception fees. The one-segment broadcasting service for mobile receivers is not included.
|Satellite digital broadcasting
||The BS digital broadcasting market consists of NHK reception fees and viewing charges (private paid-program broadcasters). The CS digital broadcasting market consists of viewing charges paid by viewers (initial subscription fees, monthly basic charges, monthly paid-program viewing charges, pay-per-view (PPV) charges) and advertising revenues (chiefly content-providing broadcasters).
||The market consists of advertising revenues, initial subscription fees, paid-program viewing charges (package or individual selection), advertising charges and home terminal rental charges. Revenues newly accrued from PPV, VOD (video-on-demand) and other interactive services that are expected to emerge after the completion of the shift to the digital format are not included. Revenues obtained by dealing with poor reception and those from the CATV Internet market are excluded.
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