Mobile Solutions and to Expand to ¥ 701.1 Billion;
Flat-Screen TV Markets to ¥ 17,645.0 Billion
— Perspectives on the Scale and Trends of the IT Market in Japan through 2010 (2) —
Flat-Screen TV Markets to ¥ 17,645.0 Billion
— Perspectives on the Scale and Trends of the IT Market in Japan through 2010 (2) —
December 15, 2005
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO) has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts through 2010 for seven major fields of information technology. In this second phase following forecasts for broadband, broadcasting and security markets released on December 7, NRI announces forecasts for four mobile phone markets, six e-business life markets, nine hardware markets and five platform markets. (See Market Definitions for the definition of each market.)
| Mobile Phone, e-Business Life and Platform Market Forecasts | (Unit: Billion yen) |
| Market | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2010 | ||
| Mobile phone markets | Mobile carrier*1 | Case 1 | 6,900.0 | 7,020.0 | 7,020.0 |
| Case 2 | 6,900.0 | 6,880.0 | 6,330.0 | ||
| Mobile platform | 38.7 | 64.5 | 273.2 | ||
| Mobile content | 293.0 | 321.0 | 358.0 | ||
| Mobile solutions | 472.1 | 646.0 | 1,701.1 | ||
| e-business life markets | BtoC EC | 3,600.0 | 4,100.0 | 5,600.0 |
|
| CtoC Internet auction | 1,140.0 | 1,620.0 | 2,800.0 | ||
| Online game | 85.0 | 113.0 | 237.0 | ||
| Music distribution*2 | 10.6 | 17.0 | 57.0 | ||
| Internet advertising*2 | 265.0 | 359.0 | 643.0 | ||
| e-learning | 76.0 | 85.0 | 129.0 | ||
| Platform markets | Electronic authentication | 25.3 | 29.2 | 53.1 | |
| Billing/payment | 151.0 | 164.0 | 196.0 | ||
| IC tags | 27.5 | 37.0 | 120.7 | ||
| Smart cards | 36.7 | 46.4 | 67.5 | ||
| Corporate currency | 59.6 | 62.8 | 70.0 | ||
| *1: | The figures are based on calendar years, rather than fiscal years. The figures in Case 1 are those if the average revenue per unit (ARPU) of each carrier continues to record a year-on-year decline of 3 percent; the figures in Case 2 are those if the ARPU of each carrier continues to record a year-on-year decline of 5 percent due to price competition. |
| *2: | The figures are based on calendar years, rather than fiscal years. |
The Japanese mobile phone markets will be at a major turning point during the period from 2006 to 2007. This period will see the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP), the participation of new mobile carriers including mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), progress in fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) and the start of digital broadcasting for mobile phones. Under these market environments, the revenues of mobile carriers from the telecommunications business that were 6,900 billion yen in fiscal 2005 are projected to decline to about 6,300 billion yen in fiscal 2010 through the effects of factors such as price competition. However, in contrast, the scale of the mobile solutions market that was about 300 billion yen in fiscal 2004 is expected to expand to about 1,700 billion yen in fiscal 2010 due to several factors stimulating demand such as the introduction of mobile centrex service and the construction of mobile websites by BtoC companies.
In the e-business life markets, BtoC EC (e-commerce) and CtoC Internet auctions have gradually been becoming popular among consumers. In particular, the CtoC Internet auction field accounted for 32 percent of the entire EC market in fiscal 2004. The size of this field is projected to expand to 2,800 billion yen by fiscal 2010, which is 2.5 times its size in fiscal 2005.
Significant growth will also be seen in the field of music distribution. The factors supporting such rapid growth include the emergence of highly convenient terminals such as mobile phones and portable digital media players, e.g., iPods, and the establishment of a business model in which all processes---from securing and distributing content to the terminals used---are comprehensively managed by providers. The market is projected to expand by about 5.3 times from 10.6 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 57 billion yen in fiscal 2010.
In the platform markets, with the expansion of opportunities for using electronic money, the billing/payment field is projected to grow from 151.0 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 196 billion yen in fiscal 2010. IC tags are steadily moving toward the stage of practical applications. The period from 2008 to 2009, when the utilization of IC tags will start not only within specific companies but also among multiple companies, will be a major turning point for this market. If industrial standards can be smoothly worked out, the size of the IC tag market will increase from 27.5 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 120.7 billion yen in fiscal 2010.
In response to such market expansion, moves by companies to use the personal IDs of mobile phones with built-in contactless smart cards and the IDs of IC-tag-embedded commodities for marketing and sales promotion activities will be accelerated in the future.
In the e-business life markets, BtoC EC (e-commerce) and CtoC Internet auctions have gradually been becoming popular among consumers. In particular, the CtoC Internet auction field accounted for 32 percent of the entire EC market in fiscal 2004. The size of this field is projected to expand to 2,800 billion yen by fiscal 2010, which is 2.5 times its size in fiscal 2005.
Significant growth will also be seen in the field of music distribution. The factors supporting such rapid growth include the emergence of highly convenient terminals such as mobile phones and portable digital media players, e.g., iPods, and the establishment of a business model in which all processes---from securing and distributing content to the terminals used---are comprehensively managed by providers. The market is projected to expand by about 5.3 times from 10.6 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 57 billion yen in fiscal 2010.
In the platform markets, with the expansion of opportunities for using electronic money, the billing/payment field is projected to grow from 151.0 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 196 billion yen in fiscal 2010. IC tags are steadily moving toward the stage of practical applications. The period from 2008 to 2009, when the utilization of IC tags will start not only within specific companies but also among multiple companies, will be a major turning point for this market. If industrial standards can be smoothly worked out, the size of the IC tag market will increase from 27.5 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 120.7 billion yen in fiscal 2010.
In response to such market expansion, moves by companies to use the personal IDs of mobile phones with built-in contactless smart cards and the IDs of IC-tag-embedded commodities for marketing and sales promotion activities will be accelerated in the future.
| Hardware Market Forecasts | (Unit: Billion yen) |
| Market | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2010 |
| PCs | 1,696.3 | 1,659.9 | 1,579.7 |
| Car-mounted information terminals | 328.5 | 333.6 | 310.4 |
| Flat-screen TVs*3 | 8,632.0 | 11,588.0 | 17,645.0 |
| Hard disk recorders | 266.6 | 283.6 | 305.5 |
| Robots | 14.9 | 19.5 | 57.6 |
| (Unit: 1,000 units) |
| Market | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | FY 2010 | |
| Digital cameras*3 | 6,390.0 | 7,150.0 | 7,600.0 | |
| Market | 2005 | 2006 | 2010 | |
| Mobile phone terminals*4 | 2nd generation | 2,090.0 | 1,130.0 | 160.0 |
| 3rd generation | 2,690.0 | 3,750.0 | 4,860.0 | |
| Game machines (stationary type)*3 | 1,439.0 | 1,863.0 | 2,525.0 | |
| Portable audio players*3 | 6,400.2 | 6,576.8 | 7,072.5 | |
| *3: | These figures represent monetary amounts or the number of units shipped by domestic manufacturers to the world market, while the other figures represent shipments to the domestic market. |
| *4: | These figures represent the number of units in demand in Japan. |
As we move toward 2010, the hardware markets are expected to grow smoothly. In particular, the flat-screen TV field is projected to achieve significant growth in the world market, from 8,632.0 billion yen in fiscal 2005 to 17,645.0 billion yen in fiscal 2010, or about 90 million units in terms of units shipped. However, due to price drops that often occur with digital home appliances, market growth will level off around 2010 if no new features are introduced.
In light of success in the business model in which the music distribution service is used to promote the sales of hardware, it is also likely that comprehensive electronics manufacturers in Japan may promote the sales of their products by combining service, content and hardware, thereby facilitating market development.
This is the fifth version of IT market forecasts, following those made in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. It is, however, not uncommon for the assumptions on which market forecasts are based to evolve due to rapid fluctuations in the environment surrounding the IT market and the emergence of new services and players resulting from technological innovation. In accordance with the demands of these constantly evolving markets, NRI will continue to revise its forecasts as and whenever necessary.
In late December, Toyo Keizai Inc. will publish a book entitled, Korekara joho/tsushin shijo de nani ga okoruka ® IT shijo nabigeta 2006 nen-ban (What will Occur in the Information and Communications Markets: IT Market Navigator 2006). This book will provide the details related to the forecasts given above.
In light of success in the business model in which the music distribution service is used to promote the sales of hardware, it is also likely that comprehensive electronics manufacturers in Japan may promote the sales of their products by combining service, content and hardware, thereby facilitating market development.
This is the fifth version of IT market forecasts, following those made in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. It is, however, not uncommon for the assumptions on which market forecasts are based to evolve due to rapid fluctuations in the environment surrounding the IT market and the emergence of new services and players resulting from technological innovation. In accordance with the demands of these constantly evolving markets, NRI will continue to revise its forecasts as and whenever necessary.
In late December, Toyo Keizai Inc. will publish a book entitled, Korekara joho/tsushin shijo de nani ga okoruka ® IT shijo nabigeta 2006 nen-ban (What will Occur in the Information and Communications Markets: IT Market Navigator 2006). This book will provide the details related to the forecasts given above.
 Since September 2005, NRI has been carrying out, "Proposing Japan's Future toward 2010," a campaign in which NRI will make a series of proposals regarding Japanese society and industry in 2010 and beyond. This news release was announced in conjunction with the campaign. NRI will continue to actively make proposals by issuing news releases, publishing books, holding seminars, etc., in the hope that they will spur the development of forward-looking, ambitious goals within Japanese industrial circles and society. |
[For general inquiries, please contact:]
Yukako Seto / Takeshi Nomura
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Phone: +81-3-6270-8100
E-mail: kouhou@nri.co.jp
Yukako Seto / Takeshi Nomura
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Phone: +81-3-6270-8100
E-mail: kouhou@nri.co.jp
[Reference]
Market DefinitionsMobile Phone Markets
| Mobile carriers | The market size forecast covers the total revenues of existing mobile carriers from telecommunications business. Revenues of new market entrants are not included. The market size is calculated by multiplying the number of subscriptions at the middle of each fiscal year by the yearly average revenue per unit (ARPU). |
| Mobile platform | The market size is defined as the sum of that of the mobile payment market and that of the mobile e-authentication market. The size of the mobile payment market is calculated by adding the handling fees charged for payments by using mobile phones. The size of the mobile e-authentication market is the total costs incurred in authenticating mobile phone terminals. |
| Mobile content | The forecast covers the sales of service to distribute content for a fee to mobile phones. The market of content that is provided to users free-of-charge is not included. |
| Mobile solutions | The forecast covers the development of applications strongly dependent on the use of mobile phones as well as their maintenance and operations. However, neither hardware prices nor traffic charges are included. |
e-Business Life Markets
| BtoC EC | This is an e-commerce market for individuals using the Internet. Corporate spending such as business travel expenses is not included. Sales via mobile devices such as mobile phones are included. However, sales for which final decisions and contracts are not completed via the Internet such as quotations and applications relating to the sale of automobiles and real estate are not included. Online trading, online banking and digital content (e.g., music/video distribution, e-learning) markets are not included, either. Further, publicly operated events such as horse races and public lotteries are not included. |
| CtoC Internet auction | The market size forecast covers the total amount of auction transactions conducted between individuals by using the auction sites operated by service providers that mediate auction transactions via the Internet. The market forecast includes: (1) cases in which users in Japan use auction sites operated by overseas service providers and (2) cases in which goods are offered in an auction category by designating the price (e.g., Rakuten Furima’s fixed prices). However, the market forecast does not include: (1) cases in which target products are those that require some BtoC functions such as when it is difficult for an individual offering a product on an auction site to complete the procedures via only the Internet and a mediator is required to complete such procedures (e.g., real estate, automobiles or motorcycles); (2) cases in which transactions are conducted without the use of an auction site (e.g., transactions using an individual’s bulletin board/website or mailing list); and (3) cases in which either the exhibitor or the successful bidder, or both the exhibitor and the successful bidder are companies (e.g., Rakuten Super Auction). |
| Online game | The online game market forecast covers the total sales of gaming services provided in Japan via the Internet by using household game machines including portable game machines and mobile phones. However, the market forecast does not cover the usage format in which the game software itself is downloaded from the Internet to hardware such as household game machines and PCs, and the software is used independently within such hardware. Further, the market does not cover arcade games where games are played through game centers via the Internet. |
| Music distribution | The music distribution market covers the “Internet music distribution market” and the “mobile phone music distribution market.” The forecast for the Internet music distribution market covers the amounts paid by consumers to services for downloading music to PCs and audio devices from the Internet. The forecast for the mobile phone music distribution market covers the amounts paid by consumers to download music to mobile phone terminals. Both markets are for music distribution. Services to distribute karaoke data and those to distribute only some portions of music such as for ringtone melodies and songs are not included. |
| Internet advertising | This market covers advertising via the Internet, such as inserting advertisements on websites and information sites for mobile phones, and the e-mail distribution of advertisements. However, site construction expenses are not included. |
| e-learning | This market covers Web-based training (WBT), which is an educational system that uses the Internet and/or Intranets. The market covers educational content used in such systems but does not cover system development, operation and maintenance. |
Platform Markets
| Electronic authentication | This market covers the services used to develop
a system to authenticate users and servers by issuing electronic certificates
and to issue and manage electronic certificates (for organizations/corporations
and for individuals). In addition to certificates using public key encryption
technology, those employing one-time passwords are included. System development includes the development and software related to authentication functions. However, the cost of smartcards to store certificates is not included. |
| Billing/payment | This is defined as billing and payment under commercial transactions between businesses and consumers (BtoC). The market size consists of the total amount received by a third party settlement organization in the format of handling fees from transaction participants in Internet shopping. The handling fees paid to delivery companies for charge collection services and escrow service usage charges are not included. The forecast does not cover the market of credit cards and J-Debit cards at bricks-and-mortar stores. |
| IC tags | This market refers to the IC tags used in Japan. The IC
tags covered in this market consist of passive products that do not require
batteries at 125 kHz or 13.56 MHz and active products that do require batteries.
Contactless smart cards, such as FeliCa, are not included. The market size consists of the three fields of providing hardware, developing a system and maintaining and operating a system as necessitated by the introduction of IC tags. The sales in each field are added in calculating the projected market size. |
| Smart cards | Smart cards refer to cards with built-in IC chips to record information and make calculations. The size of the Smart card market is defined as the amount obtained by multiplying the number of smart cards issued every year by the unit price. |
| Corporate currency | Corporate currency refers to the value that can be circulated and used in a manner similar to currency and that is given to users as part of sales promotional activities and/or services such as mileage and points issued by companies. The corporate currency market refers to the market proving a platform to companies (“B” in terms of BtoC) that provide corporate currency to users. Accordingly, this market itself is the business-to-business (BtoB) market. The market size is defined as the total sum of costs to develop a system including costs for large-scale renovation and operating costs including outsourcing. |
Hardware Markets
| PCs | This market covers desktop, notebook and server PCs. The market size is calculated based on the amount shipped for use in the domestic market. |
| Mobile phone terminals | This market refers to that of mobile phone terminals shipped for use in the domestic market. The market forecast covers PDC, cdmaOne (including 1x and EV-DO) and W-CDMA terminals provided by NTT DoCoMo, KDDI (including au and TU-KA) and Vodafone, and by new entrants in and after 2007 such as Softbank and eAccess. Wireless LAN and PHS terminals are not included. |
| Car-mounted information terminals | The market size consists of the total amount of shipments of car navigation system terminals and associated modules. The terminals that are not associated with a navigation system, such as a car-mounted theft prevention device and a car-mounted ETC device, are not included. Further, the fees required to update electronic maps and information service usage fees are also not included. |
| Digital cameras | This market is defined as that for digital cameras for
the principal purpose of taking still pictures. Digital cameras with additional
functions to replay music and/or take movies are included. However, equipment used for principal purposes other than taking still pictures and that has built-in digital camera functions, such as a mobile phone with a built-in digital camera, is not included. Digital video cameras used for the principal purpose of taking moving pictures and hybrid cameras with functions to take both still and moving pictures, i.e., multi-camera systems, are also not included. |
| Flat-screen TVs | This covers three systems: liquid crystal TVs, plasma TVs and micro-display type rear projection TVs (CRT rear-projection TVs are not included). |
| Game machines (stationary type) | This market covers third-generation and subsequent household game machines. Arcade game machines are not included. Household game machines are divided into two categories: stationary and portable. Third-generation stationary game machines include Sony’s PlayStation 2 (PS2), Microsoft’s Xbox and Nintendo’s GameCube. Fourth-generation stationary game machines include Microsoft’s Xbox 360, Sony’s PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Nintendo’s Revolution (tentative name). The market forecast assumes that Xbox 360 will be marketed in December 2005, PS3 in the first half of 2006, and Revolution in the middle of 2006. |
| Hard disk recorders | This market refers to that of retail shops handling video recording devices with a built-in hard disk as storage media. While the products generally include a DVD recorder in addition to a hard disk, products with only a hard disk are also included. |
| Portable audio players | This market covers headphone stereo cassette players, portable CD players (including CD-R and CD-RW products using various compression systems such as MP3), portable MD players, hard disk audio players (including both built-in and removable type storage media) and silicon audio players (including both built-in and removable type storage media). However, equipment used for principal purposes other than replaying music and to which music replay functions are attached, such as mobile phone terminals and portable game machines, is not included. |
| Robots | A robot is defined as a device equipped with control and driving capabilities to autonomously conduct processing in response to input from sensors. This market does not include industrial (FA) robots and military robots. |
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rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.