From Broadband to a Ubiquitous Network
One Gbps Optical Network Services to Begin
— NRI announces an IT development road map to FY2009 —
May 19, 2005
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO) announces its IT Road Map. This forecasts the progress of information technology in Japan for the next five years. In the field of information and communication technology (ICT), the development of broadband-related technology will finish. A new phase will begin in which technology to create a ubiquitous network will be put into practical use. In total, it is expected that whereas growth in the use of ADSL (the main technology for broadband networks) will essentially end by FY2007, the development of optical network technology will begin in earnest in Japan.
Furthermore, in the field of ICT, there are three particularly noteworthy technological developments taking place in FY2005 (April 2005 - March 2006): (1) in the area of cable communication, the commencement of 1 Gbps optical network service, (2) in the area of wireless communication, broadbandization of cellular phones, and (3) full-scale development of IPv6 (Internet protocol version 6) by telecommunications carriers.
Figure: Information and Communication Technology Road Map
Cable communication: the spread of 100Mbps and the start of 1 Gbps optical network service
The diffusion of broadband communication, which includes ADSL (asymmetric digital subscriber line), has reached a period of stability. Forty percent of all households were using broadband by the end of last year. This fiscal year will mark the beginning of the ultrahigh-speed network era of 100Mbps. Services will be expanded for IP telephones, audio and visual applications such as visual distribution and television conferences. One-Gbps optical network service will begin in the end of this fiscal year, under which distribution of high-quality images viewable on big screen televisions will take place.
Moreover, transition to an era of "optical giga-network" will begin in FY2007. It is predicted that by the end of FY2008, 1 Gbps optical network services will be made widely available. In FY2009 an era of even higher-speed giga-service will begin.
Wireless communication: broadbandization of cellular phones and multiple use of wireless communication
Between now through FY2006, the communication speed of cellular phones is expected to rise to several Mbps (broadband). The practical application of next-generation 3.5G cell phones will begin in the second half of this fiscal year, and be widely used by the second half of FY2006. Introduction of 4G cell phones with speed of 100 Mbps is expected by FY2010.
Furthermore, cell phones equipped with a wireless interface such as noncontact IC cards, Bluetooth, and wireless LAN became available last year. This fiscal year, cell phones that make such multiple forms of wireless communication possible will become widely used, bringing us another step closer to the actualization of a ubiquitous network. Also, the use of WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access), a standard that is supposed to enable the delivery of last mile wireless broadband access, is expected to grow from the beginning of FY2007.
IPv6: introduction and practical application by telecommunications carriers
IPv6, which allows a virtually limitless number of IP addresses to be used, had been a technology that was difficult to put into practical use. However, last year, some telecommunications carriers began providing commercial IPv6 services to consumers. This year, the application of IPv6 is anticipated to extend to terminals other than personal computers, including IP television phones, IP cameras, and digital home appliances.
By around FY2006, cellular phones will become IP-based, and for this, IPv6 is likely to be used. This will trigger the widespread use of IPv6, including IPv6-based LAN built into automobiles, which we will likely see by the end of FY2007.
The IT Road Map forecasts developments of information technology for the coming five years. It is drawn up to support customers making IT strategic decisions. It is conducted by the NRI Technology Research Department every half-year. NRI will continue to formulate road maps with a high level of precision that focus on the hot topics of each era in the field of information technology.
[For inquiries, please contact:]
Miyako Kusakabe / Takeshi Nomura
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
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