Rapid Increase in the Mobile Phone-Incorporated
IC Card Settlement Market:
14.3 Million Subscriptions to IP Telephony Facilities
Forecast for Fiscal 2009
— Perspectives of the IT Market Scale and Its Trends until 2009 (1) —
January 12, 2005
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO)
has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts until the year 2009
for 7 principal domestic information technology fields. NRI has, as the first
phase, released market scale forecasts for 3 mobile phone markets and seven broadband
markets (see reference for each market definition). Furthermore, NRI will announce
forecasts for "e-business life" , broadcasting, hardware, platform
and security markets in upcoming release.
NRI anticipates that, in the mobile phone market, the introduction of number
portability (scheduled for 2006) and the entry of new players will have a substantial
impact upon telecommunications carriers. Because of its growth potential, the
size of the mobile platform market is expected to grow to ¥250 billion during
fiscal 2009 (April 2009 --- March 2010), mainly because mobile phones incorporating
contactless IC card capabilities are likely to generate a new settlement market.
The mobile content market will also continue to grow and is expected to increase
from ¥253 billion in fiscal 2004 to ¥339.5 billion in fiscal 2009.
The number of 3G mobile phones in use will account for 50% of all mobile phones
during fiscal 2005, and the transition from 2G will be almost completed by the
end of fiscal 2009. (This estimation does not take account of the influence of
mobile number portability or of the entry of new carriers.)
The broadband market will reach a period of maturity, while the use of fiber
optic will develop more gradually. Fiber optic will be installed progressively
both in detached properties and in apartment complexes, thereby increasing the
number of broadband- subscribing households to around 9 million by the end of
fiscal 2009, and the size of the market to some ¥440 billion. The number
of households subscribing to broadband via such systems as FTTH, FTTB+
DSL will reach 29 million, (accounting for about 60% of all households) by the
end of fiscal 2009. In the IP telephone market, the number of subscribers to
services for general consumers is expected to grow from 6.8 million at the end
of fiscal 2004 to approximately 14.3 million by the end of fiscal 2009.
|IT Market Forecasts
(billions of yen)
|Mobile phone markets
|Mobile phone content
|Public wireless LAN
|IP-VPN, wide area Ethernet
|IP telephone *2
||The upper figures in the carrier column for fiscal 2005 and fiscal 2009
are the forecasts if the average revenue per unit (ARPU) of each carrier
continues to decline by 3% every year during and after fiscal 2005. The
lower figures are the forecasts if the ARPU of each carrier ceases to decline
from fiscal 2005.
||The numbers of subscribers with IP telephones for general consumers
are in units of 1,000.
This is the fourth IT market forecast, following those of 2000, 2001 and 2003. It is, however, not uncommon for the assumptions on which market forecasts are made to evolve, due to rapid fluctuations in the environment surrounding IT markets and to the emergence of new services and players as a consequence of technological innovation. In accordance with the demands of these constantly evolving markets, NRI will continue to revise forecasts as and when this is necessary.
[For inquiries, please contact]
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Mobile phone market
||The market size forecast is the sum of telecommunications
revenues of 4 mobile phone carriers (NTT DoCoMo, au, Vodafone and Tuka),
and is derived by multiplying the forecasted average revenue per unit (ARPU)
at the end of the term by the number of subscriptions at the middle of
the term. Revenues of new entrants and the sales of mobile phone terminals
are not included.
||This comprises the market of businesses providing infrastructures
which help carriers to develop business, such as the provision of mobile
content services, including the distribution of various kinds of information.
The forecast is based specifically on the sum of the mobile e-authentication
and mobile settlement markets.
||This market is concerned with the provision of chargeable
content on mobile phones. These comprise an entertainment market including
the downloading of ring-tone melodies (ring-tone songs and voice recordings),
games and display images, as well as information, such as news and weather
forecast, services market.
|DSL (digital subscriber line)
||The forecast applies to the ADSL (asymmetric
DSL) access market for households. It does not apply to SDSL (symmetric
DSL), which provides identical uplink and downlike speeds for businesses,
or VDSL (very high-bit-rate DSL), which serves tenants of apartment complexes
via optical fiber links.
|FTTH (fiber to the home)
||The forecast applies to optical fiber broadband access
markets for households. In this forecast, the FTTH market is defined in
a narrow sense as the market where optical fiber is laid directly to households.
On the other hand, FTTB (fiber to the building) + is defined as a market
where optical fiber is used in conjunction with VDSL and other technologies
to bring services to apartment complexes.
||Cable Internet is a generic term for Internet access services
that employ a cable television network. NRI’s forecast applies to
the broadband access service markets that are served by domestic cable
television operators catering to households, including individual houses
and apartment complexes.
|Public wireless LAN
||The size of the public wireless LAN market is defined as
the sum of contract and monthly charges collected from regular service
users together with volume-based service charges collected from temporary
users. ISP charges are not included. The cost of installing and operating
access point equipment provided to subscribers at their expense is not
(Internet service provider)
|The ISP market is concerned with internet access services
provided via access lines such as dial-up, DSL, cable television, FTTH(NTT's
B Flets, etc.), dedicated lines and wireless. The transmission and utilization
fees in respect of the access lines are not included. Neither the initial
fees (construction cost and commission) incurred in setting-up nor the
equipment rental fees are included in the estimate of the size of this
||The forecast applies to IP (Internet protocol) telephone
services for consumers using an ordinary telephone rather than a PC. The
forecast also includes IP telephone services providing IP transmissions
between subscribers. Telephone services using IP transit network only between
NTT stations, such as services provided by Fusion Communications, are therefore
not included in the forecast.
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No reproduction or republication without written permission.