Perspectives of the Market Scale and its Trend
of the IT Market
until the Year 2008 (3)
- PC and Mobile Phone Markets to Mature, and Car Navigation to Reach
24 Million Terminals -
until the Year 2008 (3)
- PC and Mobile Phone Markets to Mature, and Car Navigation to Reach
24 Million Terminals -
November 20, 2003
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO) has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts until the year 2008 for 31 principal information technology fields. NRI has released the forecasts for four hardware markets, and is the third in a series of news releases following those released on October 29 and November 13 that provide forecasts for broadband, telecommunications, broadcasting, e-business, digital contents, and platform markets.
In the hardware market, the PC and mobile phone markets will continue to mature. As the market structure will cater primarily to replacement demand, annual growth is expected to remain low, at around 1 to 2%. In 2008, shipment of approximately 11,100,000 PCs and demand for approximately 44,500,000 mobile phones are forecasted. The demand for 3G mobile phones is expected to exceed that of 2Gs in 2005.
The car navigation terminal market is expected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 10% due to the increase in the number of vehicles equipped with terminals at the production stage. In the fiscal year 2008, shipment is estimated to be 4.2 million terminals, and the total number of vehicles equipped with car navigation terminals is forecasted at 24 million.
The PDA market has faced difficulties cultivating new applications and business models. The PDA also has failed to differentiate itself from mobile phones. Assuming the status quo, shipment in 2008 should fall short of the 900,000 unit mark.
In the hardware market, the PC and mobile phone markets will continue to mature. As the market structure will cater primarily to replacement demand, annual growth is expected to remain low, at around 1 to 2%. In 2008, shipment of approximately 11,100,000 PCs and demand for approximately 44,500,000 mobile phones are forecasted. The demand for 3G mobile phones is expected to exceed that of 2Gs in 2005.
The car navigation terminal market is expected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 10% due to the increase in the number of vehicles equipped with terminals at the production stage. In the fiscal year 2008, shipment is estimated to be 4.2 million terminals, and the total number of vehicles equipped with car navigation terminals is forecasted at 24 million.
The PDA market has faced difficulties cultivating new applications and business models. The PDA also has failed to differentiate itself from mobile phones. Assuming the status quo, shipment in 2008 should fall short of the 900,000 unit mark.
Hardware market forecasts
| Market | 2002(estimate) | 2003(forecast) | 2008(forecast) | CAGR*2 |
| PCs (thousands of units) | 9,840 | 9,700 | 11,134 | 2.1% |
| Mobile phones (millions of units) | 41.0 | 42.5 | 44.5 | 1.4% |
| Car navigation terminals (tens of thousands of units) *1 | 242.4 | 284.2 | 422.5 | 9.7% |
| PDAs (millions of units) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 5.0% |
*1:Car Navigation terminals market size is for fiscal years.
*2: CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) for each market is the annual average of seven years from 2002 to 2008.
This is the third year that NRI has released IT market forecasts, following those released in December 2000 and October 2001. The environment surrounding the IT market changes at a dizzying pace, and the emergence of innovative new services or players can change the assumptions made in deriving market forecasts. Therefore, NRI will continue to revise its forecasts as necessary.
[For inquiries, please contact]
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Phone: +81-3-5255-1981
e-mail: kouhou@nri.co.jp
Corporate Communications Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Phone: +81-3-5255-1981
e-mail: kouhou@nri.co.jp
<Topics>
PC market: Demand to remain high, but static
The PC market has shrunk since peaking in 2000. The demand for PCs among businesses and individuals alike is primarily for replacement, and no new demand can be expected. Therefore, demand as a whole is expected to remain high, but static.
| Actual and Forecasted PC Shipments in Japan |
 |
Mobile phone market: Demand to remain high, but static, with 3G to replace 2G
Demand for mobile phones is expected to remain high, but static. In 2005, the demand for 3G (1xMC, 1xEV, and W-CDMA) will outstrip the demand for 2G.
| Actual and Forecasted Changes in Demand for Mobile Phones in Japan |
 |
Car navigation terminal market: 24 million vehicles to be equipped and market to expand to ¥300 billion in the fiscal year 2008
In the fiscal year 2008, 4.2 million car navigation terminals will be shipped and 24 million vehicles, or 31% of all vehicles, will be equipped with them. Market size is expected to reach approximately ¥300 billion.
| Forecast for Car Navigation Terminal shipment |
 |
| Forecast for Vehicles Equipped with Car Navigation Terminals |
 |
| Market Size Forecasts for Car Navigation Terminals |
 |
PDA market: Without a breakthrough, market expected to peak
The market environment is severe, as shipment has declined for two years in a row since 2000. The market anticipates cultivation of new applications and business models, but there are no signs of such developments. As mobile phones become increasingly sophisticated, shipments of PDAs can be expected to peak unless there is a breakthrough.
| Actual and Forecasted PDA Shipments Worldwide |
 |
<Market Definitions>
Hardware markets
| Mobile phones | Forecast for market size of mobile phones shipped within Japan. Refers to mobile phones such as PDC, cdmaOne (including 1x), and W-CDMA that are provided by NTT DoCoMo, KDDI, and J-PHONE (now Vodafone). Wireless LAN and PHS are excluded. |
| Car navigation terminals | The data are the total sales between businesses using Internet technology (TCP/IP) in Japan. The data include commissions on financial and insurance service transactions that use e-commerce). The data also include not only transactions that take place on the public network, the Internet, but also those that take place using TCP/IP protocols on such secure networks as leased lines and IP-VPN. The data only include transactions where at the minimum the placement or reception of orders take place on line. In essence, the data do not include transactions where customer browse product catalogs on the web, but then place orders by telephone. |
| PDAs | Includes PDAs with Palm OS, Pocket PC (Windows CE), or other operating systems. Lack of hard disk drive distinguishes PDAs from PCs. Although the difference between PDAs and mobile phones is becoming ambiguous, the makers are used to making the distinction. Although, for example, Handspring’s Treo is considered a PDA, Nokia’s 9210i and Kyocera’s Smartphone are not. |
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Copyright(c) 2003 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.
Copyright(c) 2003 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.