Perspectives of the Market Scale and its Trend
of the IT Market
until the Year 2008 (1)
- Broadband, Telecommunications, and Broadcasting markets -
October 29, 2003
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
*1:FY: Fiscal Year stars on April 1, and ends on March 31.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (NRI: Tokyo; Akihisa Fujinuma, President, CEO & COO)
has completed market analyses and market scale forecasts until the year 2008
for 31 principal information technology fields. NRI has, as the first phase,
released market scale forecasts for four broadband markets, four telecommunications
markets, and four broadcasting markets for that period. Furthermore, NRI will
announce forecasts for seven platform markets, two e-business markets, six digital
contents markets, and four hardware markets in upcoming releases.
NRI provided similar IT market forecasts in December 2000 and October 2001. It
is, however, not uncommon for the assumptions on which market forecasts are made
to evolve due to rapid fluctuations in the environment surrounding IT markets
and the emergence of new services and players due to technological innovation.
In accordance with the demands of these constantly evolving markets, NRI will
continue to revise forecasts as and when necessary.
|IT Market Forecasts
(Unit: hundreds of millions of yen)
|Public wireless LAN
||Wide area Ethernet
|Conventional leased line services
|Mobile telephones (case 1) *4
*2: FY2002 figures are actual values as tabulated by NRI. Figures provided for FY2003 and beyond are forecasts as estimated by NRI.
*3: CAGR (Compounded Annual Growth Rate) indicates the average annual growth rate during seven years from 2002 to 2008 (2003 and beyond for the public wireless LAN market as its market size was 0 in 2002).
*4: Case 1 is a scenario in which the ARPU of each company will gradually bottom out from 2003.
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Broadband market - FTTH to grow
The DSL and cable Internet which drove the broadband market over the past year or two are expected to downturn from 2004 or 2005. The FTTH is expected to replace them as the growth market.
|Number of Domestic Household Broadband Subscribers (Forecast)
|Number of Domestic Household Broadb and
(Unit: thousands of households)
|Number of households
||End of FY2003
||End of FY2008
Telecommunications market - growth of mobile telephone to
In the leased line market, conventional leased lines have
already downturned, and wide area Ethernet and IP-VPN markets will grow to take
up the slack. Although the mobile telephone market is now worth approximately ¥7
trillion, growth is expected to slow.
|Leased Line Market Forecast
|Changes and Forecast of Mobile Telephone
Broadcasting market - cable television to slow and BS digital
While the cable television and CS digital broadcasting will experience slower growth, the BS digital will gain momentum as advertisers begin to recognize its value as an advertising medium. A terrestrial digital broadcasting market will emerge when services begin in December 2003. Since terrestrial digital broadcasting is already the largest segment of the broadcasting market, as terrestrial digital broadcasting gains popularity, it will enjoy the largest share among digital broadcasting markets.
|Digital Broadcasting Market Size Forecast
(cable television includes analog transmissions)
||DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) is the generic term for technologies that
achieve high-speed data communications using existing telephone lines.
Most of the technologies used in household services are ADSL (Asymmetric
DSL). As of October 2003, the service speed from homes to the Internet
(uplink) is approximately 1 Mbps and that from the Internet to the home
(downlink) is 26 Mbps maximum.
NRI’s market forecast applies to the ADSL access market for households.
It does not apply to SDSL, which provides identical uplink and downlink
speeds for businesses, or VDSL (Very high-bit-rate DSL), which serves tenants
of apartment complexes via optical fiber links.
||NRI’s market forecast does not include access services for businesses,
and is limited to optical fiber broadband access markets for households.
The optical fiber is laid directly into individual houses, whereas in apartment
complexes, it is laid directly to the building, but rarely into each tenant-occupied
unit. In apartment complexes, VDSL technology using existing telephone
lines is employed to provide services without laying new lines, or Ethernet
cable is laid to provide each tenant access to the Internet.
In this forecast, the FTTH (Fiber to the Home) market is defined in a narrow
sense, and is limited to the market where optical fiber is laid directly
to households. On the other hand, FTTB (Fiber to the Building) +α is
defined as a market where optical fiber is used in conjunction with other
technologies to bring services to apartment complexes.
||Cable television (CATV) is a fixed-line television broadcasting system
via optical fibers and coaxial cables. Cable Internet is a generic term
for Internet access services that employ a CATV network. The coaxial cable
is laid directly into individual houses, whereas in apartment complexes,
it is laid directly into each tenant-occupied unit, or telephone lines
or wireless communication may be used inside apartment buildings.
NRI’s forecast applies to the broadband access service markets that
are served by domestic CATV operators catering to households, including
individual houses and apartment complexes. The forecast does not apply
to leased line access services provided for businesses and services that
are provided to apartment complexes by businesses that use cables owned
by CATV operators.
|Public wireless LAN
||The size of the public wireless LAN market is defined as the sum of monthly
charges collected from regular service users and per-day and volume-based
service charges collected from temporary users. The ISP charges are not
|Wide area Ethernet and
conventional leased line service
|These markets include such conventional principal services as high-speed
digital leased line and ATM leased lines, as well as wide area Ethernet
services (IP-VPN is not included). Such services as dark fiber and wavelength
lease services are excluded.
||This market covers IP-VPN provided by telecommunication service carriers.
It excludes VPN services provided via ISP connection, or Internet VPN services.
This market also excludes mobile-communication-based services that are
not widely used.
|Mobile telephone (case 1)
||[Number of subscriptions]
It is the sum of the number of subscriptions of four mobile telephone carriers
(NTT DoCoMo, au, Vodafone, and Tuka) and excludes those for PHS. It includes
only mobile telephones that are hand-carried (mobile telephone terminals
and card-type terminals), and excludes modular type telephones that are
built into automobiles or machines such as automatic vending machines.
(Strictly speaking, a few hundred thousand module type terminals are
already included in the subscriptions as of the end of FY2002, but these
figures are ignored in the forecast.)
The protocols cdma2000 1x, 1x EV-DO, and W-CDMA are considered as 3G. EV-DV,
HSPDA, and 4G are not included as no official announcements have been made
regarding their commencement dates. While a dual PDC and W-CDMA service
is considered as one subscription, a dual 1x and EV-DO service is considered
as one 1x subscription.
Regarding Internet compatibility, the forecast is for the number of subscriptions
for i-mode and EZweb and the number of compatible terminals in operation
for Vodafone live!.
It is the sum of revenues from telecommunications businesses out of the
total revenues of the four mobile telephone carriers (NTT DoCoMo, au, Vodafone,
and Tuka). It does not include revenues from supplementary businesses such
as charges for mobile telephone terminals. Market size is derived by multiplying
the forecasted average revenue per unit (ARPU) by the forecasted number
of subscriptions for the year. Case 1 is a scenario in which the ARPU of
each company will gradually bottom out from FY2003.
||It consists of the advertising revenues and reception charges or viewing
charges (for NHK and private, for-fee broadcasting companies)
Although commission revenues from e-commerce may be included in the future,
they are excluded from this forecast.
||The forecast is based on viewing charge revenues from viewers and advertising
revenues. In addition, as companies that broadcast CS digital programs
on consignment also distribute programs to cable television, advertising
revenues are paid for the sum of CS digital broadcasting viewers and cable
television viewers. For the purpose of the forecast, however, only the
advertising revenues paid for CS digital broadcasts are taken into consideration.
||The market size forecast is based on viewing charges from
subscribers of for-fee cable television broadcasting services and advertising
earned by cable television stations and program suppliers. It does not
include revenues obtained by eliminating broadcasting shadows or the cable
||The business model for terrestrial digital broadcasts, which will begin
in December 2003, is based on advertising revenues, as for current terrestrial
analog broadcasts. Therefore, the terrestrial digital broadcasting market
forecast is based on advertising revenues and NHK viewing charges. The
terrestrial digital broadcasting market is defined as the portion of the
terrestrial broadcasting market commensurate to the percentage of households
that view digital broadcasts.
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