Asian Economic Outlook 2002-2003
3rd Quarter Report
3rd Quarter Report
June 19, 2002
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Economic Research Department
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd.
Economic Research Department
Short-term Economic Outlook for Northeast Asia and ASEAN Economies
 |
Real economic growth(%) | Inflation rate(CPI)(%) | Current account balance (US$billion) | ||||||||||||
|
1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 (F) |
2003 (F) |
1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 (F) |
2003 (F) |
1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 (F) |
2003 (F) |
Asian NIEs | 7.5 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 4.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 60.9 | 46.0 | 57.5 | 63.0 | 65.2 |
| South Korea | 10.9 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 24.5 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.1 |
| Taiwan | 5.4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 19.0 | 21.4 | 26.2 |
| Hong Kong | 3.0 | 10.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.7 | -4.0 | -3.8 | -1.6 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 12.0 | 14.0 | 12.7 |
| Singapore | 6.9 | 10.3 | -2.0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | -0.2 | 1.6 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 17.8 | 18.3 | 17.2 | ASEAN4 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 38.2 | 34.8 | 24.5 | 28.1 | 28.9 |
| Indonesia | 0.8 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 20.7 | 3.8 | 11.5 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 10.3 |
| Malaysia | 6.1 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| Philippines | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 |
| Thailand | 4.4 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 5.3 |
| China | 7.1 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.5 | -1.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 15.7 | 20.5 | 17.4 | 16.7 | 14.3 |
| Total | 6.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 114.8 | 101.2 | 99.4 | 107.8 | 108.3 |
| Asian NIEs +ASEAN4 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 99.1 | 80.7 | 82.0 | 91.1 | 94.0 |
| Japan | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 114.6 | 119.7 | 87.8 | 117.1 | 113.4 |
| United States | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.0 | -324.4 | -444.7 | -417.4 | -459.3 | -478.4 |
Notes: (1)Each economies weight in the aggregate figures for real economic growth was calculated on the basis of its GDP for 1992 in US dollars; (2)"Asian NIEs" refers to South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore ,while "Asean4"refers to Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines; (3)data as of June 19,2002
Source: Nomura Research Institute, from official statistics of the economies concerned. Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute.
Source: Nomura Research Institute, from official statistics of the economies concerned. Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute.
Foreign Exchange Rates against USD
|
2002/6/17 | 2002/Q2 | 2002/Q3 | 2002/Q4 | 2003/Q1 | 2003/Q2 |
| Japanese Yen | 124.2 | (122.5-130.0) | (122.5-137.5) | (122.5-137.5) | (125.0-140.0) | (125.0-140.0) |
| South Korean Won | 1,230 | (1,200-1,331) | (1,200-1,350) | (1,200-1,350) | (1,225-1,375) | (1,225-1,375) |
| Taiwan Dollar | 34.1 | (33.5-35.1) | (33.5-35.5) | (33.5-35.5) | (33.75-35.75) | (33.75-35.75) |
| Hong Kong Dollar | 7.80 | 7.80 (7.77-7.90) |
7.80 (7.77-7.90) |
7.80 (7.77-7.90) |
7.80 (7.77-7.90) |
7.80 (7.77-7.90) |
| Singapore Dollar | 1.79 | 1.79 (1.75-1.85) |
1.80 (1.75-1.85) |
1.80 (1.75-1.85) |
1.80 (1.75-1.85) |
1.80 (1.75-1.85) |
| Indonesian Rupiah | 8,688 | 9,380 (8,100-11,000) |
9,100 (8,100-11,000) |
9,100 (8,100-11,000) |
9,100 (8,100-10,400) |
9,300 (8,300 -10,600) |
| Malaysian Ringgit | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Philippine Peso | 50.3 | 50.2 (49.0-51.2) |
50.8 (49.8-51.8) |
51.8 (50.8-52.8) |
51.8 (50.8-52.8) |
51.8 (50.8-52.8) |
| Thai Baht | 42.2 | 43.0 (41.0-45.0) |
44.0 (42.0-46.0) |
44.0 (42.0-46.0) |
44.0 (42.0-46.0) |
44.0 (42.0 -46.0) |
| Chinese Renminbi | 8.28 | 8.28 | 8.28 (8.20-8.35) |
8.28 (8.20-8.35) |
8.28 (8.20-8.35) |
8.28 (8.20-8.35) |
Note: Upper figures refer to period-average
Source: Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute
Source: Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute
Interest Rates
|
2002/6/17 | 2002/Q2 | 2002/Q3 | 2002/Q4 | 2003/Q1 | 2003/Q2 |
| USA (FF Rate) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.50 | 1.75-2.50 |
| South Korea (Overnight Call Rate) |
4.35 | 4.25-4.50 | 4.25-5.00 | 4.25-5.25 | 4.25-5.25 | 4.25-5.25 |
| Taiwan (3M CP Rate) | 2.28 | 2.00-2.50 | 2.00-2.75 | 2.00-2.75 | 2.00-2.75 | 2.00-2.75 |
| Hong Kong (3M HIBOR) | 1.81 | 1.80 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.50 | 1.75-2.50 |
| Singapore (3M SIBOR) | 0.81 | 0.50-1.25 | 0.50-1.50 | 0.50-1.50 | 0.75-2.00 | 0.75-2.00 |
| Indonesia (Overnight JIBOR) | 15.0 | 14.0-16.0 | 14.5-16.5 | 14.5-16.5 | 14.5-16.5 | 14.5-16.5 |
| Malaysia (3M KLIBOR) | 3.2 | 2.5-3.5 | 2.5-3.5 | 2.5-3.5 | 3.0-4.0 | 3.0-4.0 |
| Philippines (91D T Bill Rate) | 5.3 | 5.0-7.0 | 5.75-7.25 | 6.25-8.25 | 6.75-9.0 | 6.75-9.0 |
| Thailand (14D Repo) | 2.00 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 | 1.75-2.25 |
| China (1Y Lending Rate for Working Capital) |
5.31 | 5.31 | 4.77-5.31 | 4.77-5.31 | 4.77-5.31 | 4.77-5.31 |
Note: Rates refer to end-period.
Source: Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute
Full text is available in PDF file. (134KB)
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Inquires to: Economic Research Department, Nomura Research Institute
Telephone. 81-3-5255-1800
To List of Press Releases
Source: Forecasts are by Nomura Research Institute
Full text is available in PDF file. (134KB)
*You need to download the Japanese font from "Asian Font packs for Acrobat Reader" at the web site of Adobe in case character errors take place in PDF files.
Inquires to: Economic Research Department, Nomura Research Institute
Telephone. 81-3-5255-1800
To List of Press Releases
Inquiries:webmaster@nri.co.jp
Copyright(c) 2002 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.
Copyright(c) 2002 Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. All rights reserved.
No reproduction or republication without written permission.